San Luigi 2–0 Caldiero Terme: Result & Stats

San Luigi

FT

2 – 0

Caldiero Terme

11/3/2019

Serie D - Girone C · Round 12Stadio Comunale Via Felluga (Trieste)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

San Luigi25%

×Draw24%

Caldiero Terme51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LuigiExpected goals in this matchCaldiero Terme

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.75

San Luigi

1.16

Caldiero Terme

1.75

Caldiero Terme creates 51% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 47 away

1.13

creates per match

1.34

2.16

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

San Luigi

1.13

Caldiero Terme

1.34

allows per match

San Luigi

2.16

Caldiero Terme

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Luigi+0.00on par

Caldiero Terme+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Luigi ↓

Caldiero Terme →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

San Luigi or draw

49%

San Luigi or Caldiero Terme

76%

Draw or Caldiero Terme

75%

Winning margin

San Luigi wins by 2+

10%

Caldiero Terme wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

San Luigi 1+ goals

69%

San Luigi 2+ goals

32%

San Luigi 3+ goals

11%

Caldiero Terme 1+ goals

83%

Caldiero Terme 2+ goals

52%

Caldiero Terme 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

San Luigi (draw refunded)

33%

Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Luigi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

Caldiero Terme away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Luigi attack 1.13 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Caldiero Terme attack 1.34 + San Luigi defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

San Luigi scores more

25%

level

24%

Caldiero Terme scores more

51%

Caldiero Terme at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Caldiero Terme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff