San Luigi 1–1 Ambrosiana: Result & Stats

San Luigi

FT

1 – 1

Ambrosiana

L. Tentindo 81'

D. Biasi 71'

1/5/2020

Serie D - Girone C · Round 20Stadio Comunale Via Felluga (Trieste)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

San Luigi27%

×Draw24%

Ambrosiana48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LuigiExpected goals in this matchAmbrosiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.66

San Luigi

1.19

Ambrosiana

1.66

Ambrosiana creates 39% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

1.13

creates per match

1.16

2.16

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

San Luigi

1.13

Ambrosiana

1.16

allows per match

San Luigi

2.16

Ambrosiana

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Luigi+0.00on par

Ambrosiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Luigi ↓

Ambrosiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

San Luigi or draw

52%

San Luigi or Ambrosiana

76%

Draw or Ambrosiana

73%

Winning margin

San Luigi wins by 2+

11%

Ambrosiana wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

San Luigi 1+ goals

70%

San Luigi 2+ goals

33%

San Luigi 3+ goals

12%

Ambrosiana 1+ goals

81%

Ambrosiana 2+ goals

49%

Ambrosiana 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

San Luigi (draw refunded)

36%

Ambrosiana (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Luigi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

Ambrosiana away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Luigi attack 1.13 + Ambrosiana defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ambrosiana attack 1.16 + San Luigi defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Luigi scores more

27%

level

24%

Ambrosiana scores more

48%

Ambrosiana at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ambrosiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'

D. Biasi

81'

L. Tentindo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff