San Lorenzo 1–0 Independiente De Chivilcoy

San Lorenzo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente De Chivilcoy

2/29/2024

Copa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

San Lorenzo56%

×Draw29%

Independiente De Chivilcoy15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LorenzoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente De Chivilcoy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.54

San Lorenzo

1.33

Independiente De Chivilcoy

0.54

San Lorenzo creates 146% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

1.46

creates per match

0.40

0.69

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

San Lorenzo

1.46

Independiente De Chivilcoy

0.40

allows per match

San Lorenzo

0.69

Independiente De Chivilcoy

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Independiente De Chivilcoy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo ↓

Independiente De Chivilcoy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

San Lorenzo or draw

85%

San Lorenzo or Independiente De Chivilcoy

71%

Draw or Independiente De Chivilcoy

44%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo wins by 2+

27%

Independiente De Chivilcoy wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

San Lorenzo 1+ goals

74%

San Lorenzo 2+ goals

38%

San Lorenzo 3+ goals

15%

Independiente De Chivilcoy 1+ goals

42%

Independiente De Chivilcoy 2+ goals

10%

Independiente De Chivilcoy 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

79%

Independiente De Chivilcoy (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Independiente De Chivilcoy away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo attack 1.46 + Independiente De Chivilcoy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Independiente De Chivilcoy attack 0.40 + San Lorenzo defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

San Lorenzo scores more

56%

level

29%

Independiente De Chivilcoy scores more

15%

San Lorenzo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff