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San Lorenzo Res. vs Vélez Sársfield Res. — Reserve League 2022

San Lorenzo Res.
San Lorenzo Res.
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vélez Sársfield Res.
Vélez Sársfield Res.
7/18/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

San Lorenzo Res.33%
×Draw28%
Vélez Sársfield Res.39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Lorenzo Res.
1.12
Vélez Sársfield Res.
1.23

Vélez Sársfield Res. creates 10% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

San Lorenzo Res.
1.27
Vélez Sársfield Res.
1.45

allows per match

San Lorenzo Res.
1.02
Vélez Sársfield Res.
0.97

finishing

San Lorenzo Res.+0.00on par
Vélez Sársfield Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo Res. ↓

Vélez Sársfield Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Lorenzo Res. or draw
61%
San Lorenzo Res. or Vélez Sársfield Res.
72%
Draw or Vélez Sársfield Res.
67%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo Res. wins by 2+
13%
Vélez Sársfield Res. wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

San Lorenzo Res. 1+ goals
67%
San Lorenzo Res. 2+ goals
31%
San Lorenzo Res. 3+ goals
10%
Vélez Sársfield Res. 1+ goals
71%
Vélez Sársfield Res. 2+ goals
35%
Vélez Sársfield Res. 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo Res. (draw refunded)
46%
Vélez Sársfield Res. (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo Res. at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Vélez Sársfield Res. away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo Res. attack 1.27 + Vélez Sársfield Res. defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.12

Vélez Sársfield Res. attack 1.45 + San Lorenzo Res. defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

San Lorenzo Res. scores more
33%
level
28%
Vélez Sársfield Res. scores more
39%

Vélez Sársfield Res. at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vélez Sársfield Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reserve League: San Lorenzo Res. 2–1 Vélez Sársfield Res.

San Lorenzo Res. beat Vélez Sársfield Res. 2-1 in Reserve League on July 18, 2024.