San Lorenzo Res. 3–1 Racing Club Res.

San Lorenzo Res.

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Racing Club Res.

5/9/2022

Reserve League · 1st Phase - 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

San Lorenzo Res.42%

×Draw27%

Racing Club Res.32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Lorenzo Res.Expected goals in this matchRacing Club Res.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.15

San Lorenzo Res.

1.36

Racing Club Res.

1.15

San Lorenzo Res. creates 18% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 65 away

1.27

creates per match

1.28

1.02

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

San Lorenzo Res.

1.27

Racing Club Res.

1.28

allows per match

San Lorenzo Res.

1.02

Racing Club Res.

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Lorenzo Res.+0.00on par

Racing Club Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo Res. ↓

Racing Club Res. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

San Lorenzo Res. or draw

68%

San Lorenzo Res. or Racing Club Res.

73%

Draw or Racing Club Res.

58%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo Res. wins by 2+

19%

Racing Club Res. wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

San Lorenzo Res. 1+ goals

74%

San Lorenzo Res. 2+ goals

39%

San Lorenzo Res. 3+ goals

16%

Racing Club Res. 1+ goals

68%

Racing Club Res. 2+ goals

32%

Racing Club Res. 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo Res. (draw refunded)

57%

Racing Club Res. (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo Res. at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Racing Club Res. away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo Res. attack 1.27 + Racing Club Res. defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Racing Club Res. attack 1.28 + San Lorenzo Res. defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

San Lorenzo Res. scores more

42%

level

27%

Racing Club Res. scores more

32%

San Lorenzo Res. at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "San Lorenzo Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff