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San Lorenzo Res. vs Barracas Central Res. — Reserve League 2022

San Lorenzo Res.
San Lorenzo Res.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barracas Central Res.
Barracas Central Res.
7/3/2022Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

San Lorenzo Res.54%
×Draw26%
Barracas Central Res.20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Lorenzo Res.
1.50
Barracas Central Res.
0.79

San Lorenzo Res. creates 90% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 61 away

creates per match

San Lorenzo Res.
1.27
Barracas Central Res.
0.57

allows per match

San Lorenzo Res.
1.02
Barracas Central Res.
1.74

finishing

San Lorenzo Res.+0.00on par
Barracas Central Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo Res. ↓

Barracas Central Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Lorenzo Res. or draw
80%
San Lorenzo Res. or Barracas Central Res.
74%
Draw or Barracas Central Res.
46%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo Res. wins by 2+
28%
Barracas Central Res. wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

San Lorenzo Res. 1+ goals
78%
San Lorenzo Res. 2+ goals
44%
San Lorenzo Res. 3+ goals
19%
Barracas Central Res. 1+ goals
55%
Barracas Central Res. 2+ goals
19%
Barracas Central Res. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo Res. (draw refunded)
73%
Barracas Central Res. (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo Res. at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Barracas Central Res. away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo Res. attack 1.27 + Barracas Central Res. defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Barracas Central Res. attack 0.57 + San Lorenzo Res. defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

San Lorenzo Res. scores more
54%
level
26%
Barracas Central Res. scores more
20%

San Lorenzo Res. at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "San Lorenzo Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reserve League: San Lorenzo Res. 1–0 Barracas Central Res.

San Lorenzo Res. beat Barracas Central Res. 1-0 in Reserve League on July 3, 2022.