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San Lorenzo Alem vs Huracan Las Heras — Torneo Federal A 2018

San Lorenzo Alem
San Lorenzo Alem
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Huracan Las Heras
Huracan Las Heras
11/3/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 3 - 11Estadio de la Liga Catamarqueña (San Fernando del Valle de Catamarca, Catamarca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

San Lorenzo Alem44%
×Draw28%
Huracan Las Heras28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Lorenzo Alem
1.33
Huracan Las Heras
1.00

San Lorenzo Alem creates 33% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 110 away

creates per match

San Lorenzo Alem
1.33
Huracan Las Heras
0.67

allows per match

San Lorenzo Alem
1.33
Huracan Las Heras
1.32

finishing

San Lorenzo Alem+0.00on par
Huracan Las Heras+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo Alem ↓

Huracan Las Heras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Lorenzo Alem or draw
72%
San Lorenzo Alem or Huracan Las Heras
72%
Draw or Huracan Las Heras
56%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo Alem wins by 2+
21%
Huracan Las Heras wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

San Lorenzo Alem 1+ goals
74%
San Lorenzo Alem 2+ goals
38%
San Lorenzo Alem 3+ goals
15%
Huracan Las Heras 1+ goals
63%
Huracan Las Heras 2+ goals
26%
Huracan Las Heras 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo Alem (draw refunded)
61%
Huracan Las Heras (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo Alem at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Huracan Las Heras away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.32 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo Alem attack 1.33 + Huracan Las Heras defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Huracan Las Heras attack 0.67 + San Lorenzo Alem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Lorenzo Alem scores more
44%
level
28%
Huracan Las Heras scores more
28%

San Lorenzo Alem at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "San Lorenzo Alem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: San Lorenzo Alem 0–2 Huracan Las Heras

Huracan Las Heras beat San Lorenzo Alem 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio de la Liga Catamarqueña (San Fernando del Valle de Catamarca, Catamarca).