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San Juan vs Rotxapea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

San Juan
San Juan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rotxapea
Rotxapea
10/31/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 9Estadio San Juan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Juan71%
×Draw17%
Rotxapea11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Juan
2.32
Rotxapea
0.79

San Juan creates 194% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 17 away

creates per match

San Juan
1.64
Rotxapea
1.06

allows per match

San Juan
0.51
Rotxapea
3.00

finishing

San Juan+0.00on par
Rotxapea+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan ↓

Rotxapea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

San Juan or draw
89%
San Juan or Rotxapea
83%
Draw or Rotxapea
29%

Winning margin

San Juan wins by 2+
48%
Rotxapea wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

San Juan 1+ goals
90%
San Juan 2+ goals
67%
San Juan 3+ goals
40%
Rotxapea 1+ goals
55%
Rotxapea 2+ goals
19%
Rotxapea 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

San Juan (draw refunded)
86%
Rotxapea (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Juan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.51 · 61 matches

Rotxapea away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Juan attack 1.64 + Rotxapea defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.32

Rotxapea attack 1.06 + San Juan defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

San Juan scores more
71%
level
17%
Rotxapea scores more
11%

San Juan at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "San Juan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: San Juan 1–0 Rotxapea

San Juan beat Rotxapea 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on October 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Juan in Pamplona.