Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Juan vs Peña Azagresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

San Juan
San Juan
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Peña Azagresa
Peña Azagresa
9/20/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 5Estadio San Juan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

San Juan66%
×Draw20%
Peña Azagresa14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Juan
2.04
Peña Azagresa
0.82

San Juan creates 149% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 28 away

creates per match

San Juan
1.64
Peña Azagresa
1.14

allows per match

San Juan
0.51
Peña Azagresa
2.43

finishing

San Juan+0.00on par
Peña Azagresa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan ↓

Peña Azagresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

San Juan or draw
86%
San Juan or Peña Azagresa
80%
Draw or Peña Azagresa
34%

Winning margin

San Juan wins by 2+
41%
Peña Azagresa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

San Juan 1+ goals
87%
San Juan 2+ goals
60%
San Juan 3+ goals
33%
Peña Azagresa 1+ goals
56%
Peña Azagresa 2+ goals
20%
Peña Azagresa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

San Juan (draw refunded)
82%
Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Juan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.51 · 61 matches

Peña Azagresa away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Juan attack 1.64 + Peña Azagresa defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.04

Peña Azagresa attack 1.14 + San Juan defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

San Juan scores more
66%
level
20%
Peña Azagresa scores more
14%

San Juan at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "San Juan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: San Juan 3–0 Peña Azagresa

San Juan beat Peña Azagresa 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on September 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio San Juan in Pamplona.