San Juan 0–1 Pamplona: Result & Stats

San Juan

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pamplona

Unknown 74'

5/16/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

San Juan51%

×Draw27%

Pamplona22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San JuanExpected goals in this matchPamplona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.83

San Juan

1.42

Pamplona

0.83

San Juan creates 71% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 110 away

1.64

creates per match

1.15

0.51

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

San Juan

1.64

Pamplona

1.15

allows per match

San Juan

0.51

Pamplona

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Juan+0.00on par

Pamplona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan ↓

Pamplona →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

San Juan or draw

78%

San Juan or Pamplona

73%

Draw or Pamplona

49%

Winning margin

San Juan wins by 2+

25%

Pamplona wins by 2+

Team goals

San Juan 1+ goals

76%

San Juan 2+ goals

41%

San Juan 3+ goals

17%

Pamplona 1+ goals

56%

Pamplona 2+ goals

20%

Pamplona 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Juan (draw refunded)

70%

Pamplona (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Juan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.51 · 61 matches

Pamplona away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.19 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Juan attack 1.64 + Pamplona defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.42

Pamplona attack 1.15 + San Juan defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

San Juan scores more

51%

level

27%

Pamplona scores more

22%

San Juan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "San Juan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

74'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff