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San Juan vs Corellano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

San Juan
San Juan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Corellano
Corellano
11/14/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 5Estadio San Juan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

San Juan60%
×Draw23%
Corellano16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Juan
1.73
Corellano
0.76

San Juan creates 128% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 44 away

creates per match

San Juan
1.64
Corellano
1.00

allows per match

San Juan
0.51
Corellano
1.82

finishing

San Juan+0.00on par
Corellano+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan ↓

Corellano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

San Juan or draw
84%
San Juan or Corellano
77%
Draw or Corellano
40%

Winning margin

San Juan wins by 2+
34%
Corellano wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

San Juan 1+ goals
82%
San Juan 2+ goals
52%
San Juan 3+ goals
25%
Corellano 1+ goals
53%
Corellano 2+ goals
18%
Corellano 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

San Juan (draw refunded)
79%
Corellano (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Juan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.51 · 61 matches

Corellano away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Juan attack 1.64 + Corellano defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Corellano attack 1.00 + San Juan defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

San Juan scores more
60%
level
23%
Corellano scores more
16%

San Juan at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "San Juan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: San Juan 0–0 Corellano

San Juan and Corellano drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio San Juan in Pamplona.