San Juan SC 1–2 Almaden: Result & Stats

San Juan SC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Almaden

6/30/2025

USL League Two · Western Conference - 16Folsom Lake College Soccer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

San Juan SC59%

×Draw20%

Almaden20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Juan SCExpected goals in this matchAlmaden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.23

San Juan SC

2.22

Almaden

1.23

San Juan SC creates 80% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

3.86

creates per match

1.47

1.00

allows per match

0.58

creates per match

San Juan SC

3.86

Almaden

1.47

allows per match

San Juan SC

1.00

Almaden

0.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Juan SC+0.00on par

Almaden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan SC ↓

Almaden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

San Juan SC or draw

80%

San Juan SC or Almaden

80%

Draw or Almaden

41%

Winning margin

San Juan SC wins by 2+

37%

Almaden wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

San Juan SC 1+ goals

89%

San Juan SC 2+ goals

65%

San Juan SC 3+ goals

38%

Almaden 1+ goals

71%

Almaden 2+ goals

35%

Almaden 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

San Juan SC (draw refunded)

74%

Almaden (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Juan SC at home — creates 3.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Almaden away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Juan SC attack 3.86 + Almaden defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 2.22

Almaden attack 1.47 + San Juan SC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

San Juan SC scores more

59%

level

20%

Almaden scores more

20%

San Juan SC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "San Juan SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff