San Juan Mozarrifar 0–3 Valdefierro: Result & Stats

San Juan Mozarrifar

0 – 3

Valdefierro

1/3/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 4Campo Municipal el Gállego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

San Juan Mozarrifar46%

×Draw25%

Valdefierro29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Juan MozarrifarExpected goals in this matchValdefierro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.18

San Juan Mozarrifar

1.55

Valdefierro

1.18

San Juan Mozarrifar creates 31% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 31 away

0.93

creates per match

0.45

1.90

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.93

Valdefierro

0.45

allows per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

1.90

Valdefierro

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Valdefierro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan Mozarrifar ↓

Valdefierro →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

San Juan Mozarrifar or draw

71%

San Juan Mozarrifar or Valdefierro

75%

Draw or Valdefierro

54%

Winning margin

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+

23%

Valdefierro wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals

79%

San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals

46%

San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals

20%

Valdefierro 1+ goals

69%

Valdefierro 2+ goals

33%

Valdefierro 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)

61%

Valdefierro (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Juan Mozarrifar at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.90 · 29 matches

Valdefierro away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.93 + Valdefierro defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.55

Valdefierro attack 0.45 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more

46%

level

25%

Valdefierro scores more

29%

San Juan Mozarrifar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "San Juan Mozarrifar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff