San Juan Mozarrifar 0–3 Sariñena: Result & Stats

San Juan Mozarrifar

0 – 3

Sariñena

3/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2nd Phase - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

San Juan Mozarrifar26%

×Draw26%

Sariñena48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Juan MozarrifarExpected goals in this matchSariñena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.51

San Juan Mozarrifar

1.04

Sariñena

1.51

Sariñena creates 45% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 33 away

0.93

creates per match

1.12

1.90

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.93

Sariñena

1.12

allows per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

1.90

Sariñena

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Sariñena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan Mozarrifar ↓

Sariñena →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

San Juan Mozarrifar or draw

52%

San Juan Mozarrifar or Sariñena

74%

Draw or Sariñena

74%

Winning margin

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+

10%

Sariñena wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals

65%

San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals

28%

San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals

Sariñena 1+ goals

78%

Sariñena 2+ goals

44%

Sariñena 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)

35%

Sariñena (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Juan Mozarrifar at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.90 · 29 matches

Sariñena away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.93 + Sariñena defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Sariñena attack 1.12 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more

26%

level

26%

Sariñena scores more

48%

Sariñena at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sariñena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff