San Juan Mozarrifar 3–2 Calamocha: Result & Stats

San Juan Mozarrifar

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Calamocha

Adrián Casas 77' (pen)

Álex García 39'

Fran Rotellar 36'

Mele 89'

Fran Rotellar 9' (OG)

11/17/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 15Campo Municipal el Gállego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

San Juan Mozarrifar26%

×Draw26%

Calamocha48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Juan MozarrifarExpected goals in this matchCalamocha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.46

San Juan Mozarrifar

1.00

Calamocha

1.46

Calamocha creates 46% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 110 away

0.93

creates per match

1.01

1.90

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.93

Calamocha

1.01

allows per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

1.90

Calamocha

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Calamocha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan Mozarrifar ↓

Calamocha →

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

San Juan Mozarrifar or draw

52%

San Juan Mozarrifar or Calamocha

74%

Draw or Calamocha

74%

Winning margin

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+

Calamocha wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals

63%

San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals

26%

San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals

Calamocha 1+ goals

77%

Calamocha 2+ goals

43%

Calamocha 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)

35%

Calamocha (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Juan Mozarrifar at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.90 · 29 matches

Calamocha away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.93 + Calamocha defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Calamocha attack 1.01 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more

26%

level

26%

Calamocha scores more

48%

Calamocha at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Calamocha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Fran RotellarOwn goal

36'

Fran Rotellar

39'

Álex García

46'

Pablo Galvez← Adrián Gonzalvo

60'

Roncea← Sergio Garcia

62'

Cano← Álex García

68'

Cotoño← Juan Edo

69'

Israel García← Fran Rotellar

77'

Adrián CasasPenalty

80'

Rodri Hernando← Berdún

89'

Mele

San

Calamocha

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⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽🥅

▼

Rotellar

Manager: Nacho Forcén

62'▲Cano←▼Álex García

69'▲Israel García←▼Fran Rotellar

80'▲Rodri Hernando←▼Berdún

San Juan Mozarrifar substitutes

CanoGarcíaHernando

Manager: Sergio Lagunas

46'▲Pablo Galvez←▼Adrián Gonzalvo

60'▲Roncea←▼Sergio Garcia

68'▲Cotoño←▼Juan Edo

Calamocha substitutes

GalvezRonceaCotoño