San Juan Mozarrifar 4–2 Borja: Result & Stats

San Juan Mozarrifar

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Borja

Cano 90+2', 11'

Fran Rotellar 41', 33'

Álex García 90+5' (OG)

Moha 2'

12/29/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 20Campo Municipal el Gállego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

San Juan Mozarrifar30%

×Draw26%

Borja44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Juan MozarrifarExpected goals in this matchBorja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.44

San Juan Mozarrifar

1.15

Borja

1.44

Borja creates 25% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 62 away

0.93

creates per match

0.98

1.90

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.93

Borja

0.98

allows per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

1.90

Borja

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Borja+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan Mozarrifar ↓

Borja →

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

San Juan Mozarrifar or draw

56%

San Juan Mozarrifar or Borja

74%

Draw or Borja

70%

Winning margin

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+

12%

Borja wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals

68%

San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals

32%

San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals

11%

Borja 1+ goals

76%

Borja 2+ goals

42%

Borja 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)

41%

Borja (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Juan Mozarrifar at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.90 · 29 matches

Borja away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.37 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.93 + Borja defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.15

Borja attack 0.98 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more

30%

level

26%

Borja scores more

44%

Borja at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Borja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

33'

41'

46'

S. Gassama← José De la Fuente

59'

Franco Gauna← Marcos Albajara

74'

Mercadal← S. Gassama

77'

Ángel Acerete← Fran Rotellar

88'

Falo Burriel← Adrián Casas

89'

Carlos Albero← Berdún

90+2'

Cano

90+5'

Álex GarcíaOwn goal

San

Borja

▼

⚽

▼

🥅

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽2

▼

Rotellar

Manager: Nacho Forcén

77'▲Ángel Acerete←▼Fran Rotellar

88'▲Falo Burriel←▼Adrián Casas

89'▲Carlos Albero←▼Berdún

San Juan Mozarrifar substitutes

AcereteBurrielAlbero

Manager: Juan Carlos Beltrán

46'▲S. Gassama←▼José De la Fuente

59'▲Franco Gauna←▼Marcos Albajara

74'▲Mercadal←▼S. Gassama

Borja substitutes

GassamaGaunaMercadal

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: San Juan Mozarrifar 4–2 Borja

San Juan Mozarrifar beat Borja 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on December 29, 2019.

Goals: Moha (2'), Cano (11', 90+2'), Fran Rotellar (33', 41'), Álex García (90+5' o.g.).

The match was played at Campo Municipal el Gállego in Zaragoza.

San Juan Mozarrifar vs Borja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: San Juan Mozarrifar 4–2 Borja