Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Juan Mozarrifar vs Atlético Monzón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

San Juan Mozarrifar
San Juan Mozarrifar
CANC
00:00
Atlético Monzón
Atlético Monzón
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 35Campo Municipal el Gállego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

San Juan Mozarrifar25%
×Draw25%
Atlético Monzón50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Juan Mozarrifar
1.03
Atlético Monzón
1.56

Atlético Monzón creates 51% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 115 away

creates per match

San Juan Mozarrifar
0.93
Atlético Monzón
1.22

allows per match

San Juan Mozarrifar
1.90
Atlético Monzón
1.13

finishing

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par
Atlético Monzón+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan Mozarrifar ↓

Atlético Monzón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

San Juan Mozarrifar or draw
50%
San Juan Mozarrifar or Atlético Monzón
75%
Draw or Atlético Monzón
75%

Winning margin

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+
9%
Atlético Monzón wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals
64%
San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals
28%
San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals
9%
Atlético Monzón 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Monzón 2+ goals
46%
Atlético Monzón 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)
34%
Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Juan Mozarrifar at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.90 · 29 matches

Atlético Monzón away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.93 + Atlético Monzón defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Atlético Monzón attack 1.22 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more
25%
level
25%
Atlético Monzón scores more
50%

Atlético Monzón at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atlético Monzón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Juan Mozarrifar vs Atlético Monzón — Match Preview

San Juan Mozarrifar face Atlético Monzón on April 5, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

San Juan Mozarrifar host Atlético Monzón at Campo Municipal el Gállego.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.