Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San José vs Real Tomayapo — Primera División 2019

San José
San José
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Real Tomayapo
Real Tomayapo
7/17/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 9Estadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

San José51%
×Draw23%
Real Tomayapo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San José
1.88
Real Tomayapo
1.29

San José creates 46% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 89 away

creates per match

San José
1.81
Real Tomayapo
0.88

allows per match

San José
1.70
Real Tomayapo
1.94

finishing

San José+0.00on par
Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San José ↓

Real Tomayapo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

San José or draw
74%
San José or Real Tomayapo
77%
Draw or Real Tomayapo
49%

Winning margin

San José wins by 2+
29%
Real Tomayapo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

San José 1+ goals
85%
San José 2+ goals
56%
San José 3+ goals
29%
Real Tomayapo 1+ goals
72%
Real Tomayapo 2+ goals
37%
Real Tomayapo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

San José (draw refunded)
66%
Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San José at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

Real Tomayapo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.94 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San José attack 1.81 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.88

Real Tomayapo attack 0.88 + San José defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

San José scores more
51%
level
23%
Real Tomayapo scores more
26%

San José at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "San José will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San José vs Real Tomayapo

Real Tomayapo beat San José 2-1 in Primera División on July 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Bermúdez in Oruro.