Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San José vs Guabirá — Primera División 2019

San José
San José
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Guabirá
Guabirá
12/28/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 26Estadio Jesús Bermúdez (Oruro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

San José54%
×Draw21%
Guabirá24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San José
2.04
Guabirá
1.31

San José creates 56% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 129 away

creates per match

San José
1.81
Guabirá
0.92

allows per match

San José
1.70
Guabirá
2.27

finishing

San José+0.00on par
Guabirá+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San José ↓

Guabirá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

San José or draw
76%
San José or Guabirá
79%
Draw or Guabirá
46%

Winning margin

San José wins by 2+
32%
Guabirá wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

San José 1+ goals
87%
San José 2+ goals
60%
San José 3+ goals
33%
Guabirá 1+ goals
73%
Guabirá 2+ goals
38%
Guabirá 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

San José (draw refunded)
69%
Guabirá (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San José at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

Guabirá away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San José attack 1.81 + Guabirá defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.04

Guabirá attack 0.92 + San José defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

San José scores more
54%
level
21%
Guabirá scores more
24%

San José at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "San José will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: San José 2–1 Guabirá

San José beat Guabirá 2-1 in Primera División on December 28, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Bermúdez (Oruro).