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San José vs Bolívar — Primera División 2019

San José
San José
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Bolívar
Bolívar
5/8/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 7Estadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

San José33%
×Draw22%
Bolívar44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San José
1.57
Bolívar
1.85

Bolívar creates 18% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 135 away

creates per match

San José
1.81
Bolívar
2.01

allows per match

San José
1.70
Bolívar
1.33

finishing

San José+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San José ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

San José or draw
56%
San José or Bolívar
78%
Draw or Bolívar
67%

Winning margin

San José wins by 2+
16%
Bolívar wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

San José 1+ goals
79%
San José 2+ goals
46%
San José 3+ goals
21%
Bolívar 1+ goals
84%
Bolívar 2+ goals
55%
Bolívar 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

San José (draw refunded)
43%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San José at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

Bolívar away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San José attack 1.81 + Bolívar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.57

Bolívar attack 2.01 + San José defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San José scores more
33%
level
22%
Bolívar scores more
44%

Bolívar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San José vs Bolívar

Bolívar beat San José 5-0 in Primera División on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Bermúdez in Oruro.