San Jose Earthquakes 4–1 Portland Timbers

San Jose Earthquakes

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Portland Timbers

O. Bouda 88'

C. Arango 27'

C. Espinoza 24', 16'

F. Mora 42'

5/4/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 11Earthquakes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

San Jose Earthquakes49%

×Draw23%

Portland Timbers28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Jose EarthquakesExpected goals in this matchPortland Timbers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.32

San Jose Earthquakes

1.81

Portland Timbers

1.32

San Jose Earthquakes creates 37% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 36 away

1.79

creates per match

1.20

1.44

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

San Jose Earthquakes

1.79

Portland Timbers

1.20

allows per match

San Jose Earthquakes

1.44

Portland Timbers

1.83

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

San Jose Earthquakes-0.25scores less

Portland Timbers+0.08on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Jose Earthquakes ↓

Portland Timbers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

San Jose Earthquakes or draw

72%

San Jose Earthquakes or Portland Timbers

77%

Draw or Portland Timbers

51%

Winning margin

San Jose Earthquakes wins by 2+

27%

Portland Timbers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

San Jose Earthquakes 1+ goals

84%

San Jose Earthquakes 2+ goals

54%

San Jose Earthquakes 3+ goals

27%

Portland Timbers 1+ goals

73%

Portland Timbers 2+ goals

38%

Portland Timbers 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

San Jose Earthquakes (draw refunded)

64%

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Jose Earthquakes at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.44 · 46 matches

Portland Timbers away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Jose Earthquakes attack 1.79 + Portland Timbers defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

Portland Timbers attack 1.20 + San Jose Earthquakes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

San Jose Earthquakes scores more

49%

level

23%

Portland Timbers scores more

28%

San Jose Earthquakes at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "San Jose Earthquakes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Espinoza

San Jose Earthquakes · F

9.2

Match Events

16'

C. Espinoza

24'

C. Espinoza↳ O. Bouda

27'

38'

40'

42'

55'

60'

Cristian ArangoGoal cancelled

66'

C. Paredes← J. Ortiz

70'

Cristian ArangoPenalty cancelled

72'

Rodrigues← M. Floriani

76'

O. Fernandez← S. Moreno

76'

K. Kelsy← D. Ayala

76'

I. Smith← C. Bravo

82'

M. Kaye← I. Harkes

82'

A. Lassiter← J. Mosquera

88'

90+4'

90+2'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanPortland

Overview

44%Possession56%

15Total Shots17

2.13Expected Goals (xG)1.85

2Corners6

14Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots17

8On Target5

6Off Target9

1Blocked3

11Inside Box13

4Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

415Total Passes525

319Accurate Passes423

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

-1.07Goals Prevented-1.07

Discipline

14Fouls9

4Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3

Match Recap: San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers

San Jose Earthquakes beat Portland Timbers 4-1 in Major League Soccer on May 4, 2025.

Goals: C. Espinoza (16', 24'), C. Arango (27'), F. Mora (42'), O. Bouda (88').

Portland Timbers controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 15.

The match was played at Earthquakes Stadium in San Jose.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers — Major League Soccer 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers