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San Jose Earthquakes vs CF Montreal — Major League Soccer 2018

San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
CF Montreal
CF Montreal
3/3/2019Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 2Avaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

San Jose Earthquakes47%
×Draw22%
CF Montreal30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Jose Earthquakes
1.92
CF Montreal
1.50

San Jose Earthquakes creates 28% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 14 away

creates per match

San Jose Earthquakes
2.07
CF Montreal
1.39

allows per match

San Jose Earthquakes
1.61
CF Montreal
1.76

finishing

San Jose Earthquakes-0.19scores less
CF Montreal+0.18scores more

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Jose Earthquakes ↓

CF Montreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

San Jose Earthquakes or draw
70%
San Jose Earthquakes or CF Montreal
78%
Draw or CF Montreal
53%

Winning margin

San Jose Earthquakes wins by 2+
26%
CF Montreal wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

San Jose Earthquakes 1+ goals
85%
San Jose Earthquakes 2+ goals
57%
San Jose Earthquakes 3+ goals
30%
CF Montreal 1+ goals
78%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
44%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

San Jose Earthquakes (draw refunded)
61%
CF Montreal (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Jose Earthquakes at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.61 · 24 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Jose Earthquakes attack 2.07 + CF Montreal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.92

CF Montreal attack 1.39 + San Jose Earthquakes defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

San Jose Earthquakes scores more
47%
level
22%
CF Montreal scores more
30%

San Jose Earthquakes at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "San Jose Earthquakes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Jose Earthquakes vs CF Montreal

CF Montreal beat San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 in Major League Soccer on March 3, 2019.

The match was played at Avaya Stadium in San Jose.