San Jorge Tucumán vs Union Sunchales — Copa Argentina 2018
Copa Argentina · 2nd Qualifying RoundEstadio Ángel Pascual Sáez (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán)Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
San Jorge Tucumán43%
Union Sunchales35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
San Jorge Tucumán creates 12% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over70
- Under30
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes69
- No31
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
San Jorge Tucumán ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
San Jorge Tucumán at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches
Union Sunchales away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
San Jorge Tucumán attack 2.00 + Union Sunchales defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90
Union Sunchales attack 1.40 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
San Jorge Tucumán at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "San Jorge Tucumán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
San Jorge Tucumán host Union Sunchales on Sunday, 20 January 2019 at 20:00. The match is part of the Copa Argentina 2018/2019 season.
Copa Argentina: San Jorge Tucumán 3–3 Union Sunchales
San Jorge Tucumán and Union Sunchales drew 3-3 in Copa Argentina on January 20, 2019.
The match was played at Estadio Ángel Pascual Sáez (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán).