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San Jorge Tucumán vs San Martin Formosa — Torneo Federal A 2018

San Jorge Tucumán
San Jorge Tucumán
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
San Martin Formosa
San Martin Formosa
9/9/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 4 - 1Estadio Luis Hayward (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Jorge Tucumán54%
×Draw26%
San Martin Formosa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Jorge Tucumán
1.53
San Martin Formosa
0.81

San Jorge Tucumán creates 89% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 98 away

creates per match

San Jorge Tucumán
1.71
San Martin Formosa
0.80

allows per match

San Jorge Tucumán
0.82
San Martin Formosa
1.35

finishing

San Jorge Tucumán+0.00on par
San Martin Formosa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Jorge Tucumán ↓

San Martin Formosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Jorge Tucumán or draw
80%
San Jorge Tucumán or San Martin Formosa
74%
Draw or San Martin Formosa
46%

Winning margin

San Jorge Tucumán wins by 2+
28%
San Martin Formosa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

San Jorge Tucumán 1+ goals
78%
San Jorge Tucumán 2+ goals
45%
San Jorge Tucumán 3+ goals
20%
San Martin Formosa 1+ goals
56%
San Martin Formosa 2+ goals
19%
San Martin Formosa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

San Jorge Tucumán (draw refunded)
73%
San Martin Formosa (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Jorge Tucumán at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

San Martin Formosa away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Jorge Tucumán attack 1.71 + San Martin Formosa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.53

San Martin Formosa attack 0.80 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

San Jorge Tucumán scores more
54%
level
26%
San Martin Formosa scores more
20%

San Jorge Tucumán at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "San Jorge Tucumán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Jorge Tucumán vs San Martin Formosa

San Martin Formosa beat San Jorge Tucumán 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Hayward (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán).