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San Jorge Tucumán vs Gimnasia Y Tiro — Torneo Federal A 2018

San Jorge Tucumán
San Jorge Tucumán
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
11/2/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 4 - 11Estadio Luis Hayward (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Jorge Tucumán53%
×Draw28%
Gimnasia Y Tiro20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Jorge Tucumán
1.40
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.73

San Jorge Tucumán creates 92% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 64 away

creates per match

San Jorge Tucumán
1.71
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.64

allows per match

San Jorge Tucumán
0.82
Gimnasia Y Tiro
1.08

finishing

San Jorge Tucumán+0.00on par
Gimnasia Y Tiro+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Jorge Tucumán ↓

Gimnasia Y Tiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

San Jorge Tucumán or draw
80%
San Jorge Tucumán or Gimnasia Y Tiro
72%
Draw or Gimnasia Y Tiro
47%

Winning margin

San Jorge Tucumán wins by 2+
26%
Gimnasia Y Tiro wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

San Jorge Tucumán 1+ goals
75%
San Jorge Tucumán 2+ goals
41%
San Jorge Tucumán 3+ goals
17%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 1+ goals
52%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 2+ goals
17%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

San Jorge Tucumán (draw refunded)
73%
Gimnasia Y Tiro (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Jorge Tucumán at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Gimnasia Y Tiro away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.08 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Jorge Tucumán attack 1.71 + Gimnasia Y Tiro defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.40

Gimnasia Y Tiro attack 0.64 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

San Jorge Tucumán scores more
53%
level
28%
Gimnasia Y Tiro scores more
20%

San Jorge Tucumán at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "San Jorge Tucumán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: San Jorge Tucumán 3–0 Gimnasia Y Tiro

San Jorge Tucumán beat Gimnasia Y Tiro 3-0 in Torneo Federal A on November 2, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Hayward (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán).