San Jorge Tucumán 0–2 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

San Jorge Tucumán

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

4/28/2019

Torneo Federal A · 3rd Phase - 4Estadio Ángel Pascual Sáez (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

San Jorge Tucumán41%

×Draw30%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Jorge TucumánExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.91

San Jorge Tucumán

1.13

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

0.91

San Jorge Tucumán creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

1.71

creates per match

1.00

0.82

allows per match

0.54

creates per match

San Jorge Tucumán

1.71

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

1.00

allows per match

San Jorge Tucumán

0.82

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

0.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Jorge Tucumán+0.00on par

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Jorge Tucumán ↓

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

San Jorge Tucumán or draw

71%

San Jorge Tucumán or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

70%

Draw or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

59%

Winning margin

San Jorge Tucumán wins by 2+

17%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

San Jorge Tucumán 1+ goals

68%

San Jorge Tucumán 2+ goals

31%

San Jorge Tucumán 3+ goals

11%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1+ goals

60%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2+ goals

23%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

San Jorge Tucumán (draw refunded)

58%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Jorge Tucumán at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Jorge Tucumán attack 1.71 + Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.13

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto attack 1.00 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Jorge Tucumán scores more

41%

level

30%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto scores more

29%

San Jorge Tucumán at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "San Jorge Tucumán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff