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San Jorge Tucumán vs Chaco For Ever — Torneo Federal A 2018

San Jorge Tucumán
San Jorge Tucumán
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Chaco For Ever
Chaco For Ever
11/11/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 4 - 13Estadio Luis Hayward (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Jorge Tucumán47%
×Draw28%
Chaco For Ever25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Jorge Tucumán
1.34
Chaco For Ever
0.89

San Jorge Tucumán creates 51% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 42 away

creates per match

San Jorge Tucumán
1.71
Chaco For Ever
0.95

allows per match

San Jorge Tucumán
0.82
Chaco For Ever
0.98

finishing

San Jorge Tucumán+0.00on par
Chaco For Ever+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Jorge Tucumán ↓

Chaco For Ever →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Jorge Tucumán or draw
75%
San Jorge Tucumán or Chaco For Ever
72%
Draw or Chaco For Ever
53%

Winning margin

San Jorge Tucumán wins by 2+
22%
Chaco For Ever wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

San Jorge Tucumán 1+ goals
74%
San Jorge Tucumán 2+ goals
39%
San Jorge Tucumán 3+ goals
15%
Chaco For Ever 1+ goals
59%
Chaco For Ever 2+ goals
22%
Chaco For Ever 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

San Jorge Tucumán (draw refunded)
65%
Chaco For Ever (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Jorge Tucumán at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Chaco For Ever away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Jorge Tucumán attack 1.71 + Chaco For Ever defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.34

Chaco For Ever attack 0.95 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

San Jorge Tucumán scores more
47%
level
28%
Chaco For Ever scores more
25%

San Jorge Tucumán at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "San Jorge Tucumán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Jorge Tucumán vs Chaco For Ever

San Jorge Tucumán and Chaco For Ever drew 2-2 in Torneo Federal A on November 11, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Hayward (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán).