San Ignacio 1–0 Tolosa: Result & Stats

San Ignacio

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tolosa

9/14/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Campo de Fútbol de Adurtzabal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

San Ignacio48%

×Draw25%

Tolosa26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San IgnacioExpected goals in this matchTolosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.08

San Ignacio

1.55

Tolosa

1.08

San Ignacio creates 44% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 48 away

1.38

creates per match

0.96

1.21

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

San Ignacio

1.38

Tolosa

0.96

allows per match

San Ignacio

1.21

Tolosa

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Ignacio+0.00on par

Tolosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Ignacio ↓

Tolosa →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

San Ignacio or draw

74%

San Ignacio or Tolosa

75%

Draw or Tolosa

52%

Winning margin

San Ignacio wins by 2+

25%

Tolosa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

San Ignacio 1+ goals

79%

San Ignacio 2+ goals

46%

San Ignacio 3+ goals

20%

Tolosa 1+ goals

66%

Tolosa 2+ goals

29%

Tolosa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

San Ignacio (draw refunded)

65%

Tolosa (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Ignacio at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Tolosa away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Ignacio attack 1.38 + Tolosa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.55

Tolosa attack 0.96 + San Ignacio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Ignacio scores more

48%

level

25%

Tolosa scores more

26%

San Ignacio at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Ignacio vs Tolosa

San Ignacio beat Tolosa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Adurtzabal in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

San Ignacio vs Tolosa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Ignacio vs Tolosa