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San Ignacio vs Lagun Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

San Ignacio
San Ignacio
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Lagun Onak
Lagun Onak
4/17/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 31Campo de fútbol Los Astrónomos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

San Ignacio43%
×Draw27%
Lagun Onak30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Ignacio
1.35
Lagun Onak
1.09

San Ignacio creates 24% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 114 away

creates per match

San Ignacio
1.38
Lagun Onak
0.97

allows per match

San Ignacio
1.21
Lagun Onak
1.32

finishing

San Ignacio+0.00on par
Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Ignacio ↓

Lagun Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Ignacio or draw
70%
San Ignacio or Lagun Onak
73%
Draw or Lagun Onak
57%

Winning margin

San Ignacio wins by 2+
20%
Lagun Onak wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Ignacio 1+ goals
74%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
39%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
15%
Lagun Onak 1+ goals
66%
Lagun Onak 2+ goals
30%
Lagun Onak 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

San Ignacio (draw refunded)
59%
Lagun Onak (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Ignacio at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Lagun Onak away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Ignacio attack 1.38 + Lagun Onak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lagun Onak attack 0.97 + San Ignacio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

San Ignacio scores more
43%
level
27%
Lagun Onak scores more
30%

San Ignacio at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Ignacio vs Lagun Onak

Lagun Onak beat San Ignacio 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Los Astrónomos in Gasteiz.