San Ignacio 1–0 JD Somorrostro: Result & Stats

San Ignacio

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

JD Somorrostro

2/29/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 27Campo de Fútbol de Adurtzabal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

San Ignacio40%

×Draw27%

JD Somorrostro32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San IgnacioExpected goals in this matchJD Somorrostro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.14

San Ignacio

1.31

JD Somorrostro

1.14

San Ignacio creates 15% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 28 away

1.38

creates per match

1.07

1.21

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

San Ignacio

1.38

JD Somorrostro

1.07

allows per match

San Ignacio

1.21

JD Somorrostro

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Ignacio+0.00on par

JD Somorrostro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Ignacio ↓

JD Somorrostro →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

San Ignacio or draw

68%

San Ignacio or JD Somorrostro

73%

Draw or JD Somorrostro

60%

Winning margin

San Ignacio wins by 2+

18%

JD Somorrostro wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

San Ignacio 1+ goals

73%

San Ignacio 2+ goals

38%

San Ignacio 3+ goals

14%

JD Somorrostro 1+ goals

68%

JD Somorrostro 2+ goals

32%

JD Somorrostro 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

San Ignacio (draw refunded)

56%

JD Somorrostro (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Ignacio at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

JD Somorrostro away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Ignacio attack 1.38 + JD Somorrostro defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

JD Somorrostro attack 1.07 + San Ignacio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

San Ignacio scores more

40%

level

27%

JD Somorrostro scores more

32%

San Ignacio at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: San Ignacio 1–0 JD Somorrostro

San Ignacio beat JD Somorrostro 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Adurtzabal in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

San Ignacio vs JD Somorrostro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: San Ignacio 1–0 JD Somorrostro