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San Ignacio vs Derio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

San Ignacio
San Ignacio
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Derio
Derio
3/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 24Campo de fútbol Los Astrónomos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

San Ignacio39%
×Draw27%
Derio34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Ignacio
1.30
Derio
1.18

San Ignacio creates 10% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 53 away

creates per match

San Ignacio
1.38
Derio
1.15

allows per match

San Ignacio
1.21
Derio
1.23

finishing

San Ignacio+0.00on par
Derio+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Ignacio ↓

Derio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

San Ignacio or draw
66%
San Ignacio or Derio
73%
Draw or Derio
61%

Winning margin

San Ignacio wins by 2+
18%
Derio wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

San Ignacio 1+ goals
73%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
37%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
14%
Derio 1+ goals
69%
Derio 2+ goals
33%
Derio 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

San Ignacio (draw refunded)
54%
Derio (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Ignacio at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Derio away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Ignacio attack 1.38 + Derio defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Derio attack 1.15 + San Ignacio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

San Ignacio scores more
39%
level
27%
Derio scores more
34%

San Ignacio at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Ignacio vs Derio

San Ignacio and Derio drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Los Astrónomos in Gasteiz.