San Ignacio 3–1 Beti Gazte: Result & Stats

San Ignacio

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Beti Gazte

2/5/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

San Ignacio61%

×Draw21%

Beti Gazte18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San IgnacioExpected goals in this matchBeti Gazte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.02

San Ignacio

2.06

Beti Gazte

1.02

San Ignacio creates 102% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 19 away

1.38

creates per match

0.84

1.21

allows per match

2.74

creates per match

San Ignacio

1.38

Beti Gazte

0.84

allows per match

San Ignacio

1.21

Beti Gazte

2.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Ignacio+0.00on par

Beti Gazte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Ignacio ↓

Beti Gazte →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

San Ignacio or draw

82%

San Ignacio or Beti Gazte

79%

Draw or Beti Gazte

39%

Winning margin

San Ignacio wins by 2+

37%

Beti Gazte wins by 2+

Team goals

San Ignacio 1+ goals

87%

San Ignacio 2+ goals

61%

San Ignacio 3+ goals

34%

Beti Gazte 1+ goals

64%

Beti Gazte 2+ goals

27%

Beti Gazte 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Ignacio (draw refunded)

77%

Beti Gazte (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Ignacio at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Beti Gazte away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Ignacio attack 1.38 + Beti Gazte defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.06

Beti Gazte attack 0.84 + San Ignacio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

San Ignacio scores more

61%

level

21%

Beti Gazte scores more

18%

San Ignacio at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Ignacio vs Beti Gazte

San Ignacio beat Beti Gazte 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

San Ignacio vs Beti Gazte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Ignacio vs Beti Gazte