San Ignacio 4–4 Aurrerá Ondarroa: Result & Stats

San Ignacio

4 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Aurrerá Ondarroa

2/25/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Campo de fútbol Los Astrónomos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

San Ignacio48%

×Draw26%

Aurrerá Ondarroa27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San IgnacioExpected goals in this matchAurrerá Ondarroa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.06

San Ignacio

1.51

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1.06

San Ignacio creates 42% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 66 away

1.38

creates per match

0.92

1.21

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

San Ignacio

1.38

Aurrerá Ondarroa

0.92

allows per match

San Ignacio

1.21

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Ignacio+0.00on par

Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Ignacio ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

San Ignacio or draw

73%

San Ignacio or Aurrerá Ondarroa

74%

Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa

52%

Winning margin

San Ignacio wins by 2+

24%

Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

San Ignacio 1+ goals

78%

San Ignacio 2+ goals

44%

San Ignacio 3+ goals

19%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals

65%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals

29%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Ignacio (draw refunded)

64%

Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Ignacio at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Ignacio attack 1.38 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.51

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + San Ignacio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Ignacio scores more

48%

level

26%

Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more

27%

San Ignacio at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: San Ignacio 4–4 Aurrerá Ondarroa

San Ignacio and Aurrerá Ondarroa drew 4-4 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Los Astrónomos in Gasteiz.

San Ignacio vs Aurrerá Ondarroa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: San Ignacio 4–4 Aurrerá Ondarroa