San Giovanni 0–1 Cailungo: Result & Stats

San Giovanni

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cailungo

12/2/2017

League #404 · Round 11Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo (Città di San Marino)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

San Giovanni48%

×Draw24%

Cailungo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San GiovanniExpected goals in this matchCailungo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.24

San Giovanni

1.68

Cailungo

1.24

San Giovanni creates 35% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 35 away

1.02

creates per match

0.86

1.62

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

San Giovanni

1.02

Cailungo

0.86

allows per match

San Giovanni

1.62

Cailungo

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Giovanni+0.00on par

Cailungo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Giovanni ↓

Cailungo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

San Giovanni or draw

72%

San Giovanni or Cailungo

76%

Draw or Cailungo

52%

Winning margin

San Giovanni wins by 2+

25%

Cailungo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

San Giovanni 1+ goals

81%

San Giovanni 2+ goals

50%

San Giovanni 3+ goals

24%

Cailungo 1+ goals

71%

Cailungo 2+ goals

35%

Cailungo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

San Giovanni (draw refunded)

63%

Cailungo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Giovanni at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

Cailungo away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Giovanni attack 1.02 + Cailungo defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.68

Cailungo attack 0.86 + San Giovanni defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Giovanni scores more

48%

level

24%

Cailungo scores more

28%

San Giovanni at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "San Giovanni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff