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Cailungo vs San Giovanni — League #404 2026

Cailungo
Cailungo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
San Giovanni
San Giovanni
R. Michelucci 5'
F. Tumidei 75'
E. D'Angeli 25', 22'
10/26/2025League #404League #404 · Round 7Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Cailungo36%
×Draw25%
San Giovanni39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cailungo
1.35
San Giovanni
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 36 away

creates per match

Cailungo
1.08
San Giovanni
1.08

allows per match

Cailungo
1.75
San Giovanni
1.61

finishing

Cailungo+0.00on par
San Giovanni+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cailungo ↓

San Giovanni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cailungo or draw
61%
Cailungo or San Giovanni
75%
Draw or San Giovanni
64%

Winning margin

Cailungo wins by 2+
16%
San Giovanni wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cailungo 1+ goals
74%
Cailungo 2+ goals
39%
Cailungo 3+ goals
15%
San Giovanni 1+ goals
76%
San Giovanni 2+ goals
41%
San Giovanni 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cailungo (draw refunded)
48%
San Giovanni (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cailungo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

San Giovanni away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cailungo attack 1.08 + San Giovanni defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.35

San Giovanni attack 1.08 + Cailungo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cailungo scores more
36%
level
25%
San Giovanni scores more
39%

San Giovanni at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "San Giovanni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
R. Michelucci
22'
E. D'Angeli↳ F. Boldrini
25'
E. D'Angeli
75'
F. Tumidei
Cailungo
San
R. Sarti
Manager: R. Sarti
M. Tognacci
Manager: M. Tognacci

League #404: Cailungo 1–3 San Giovanni

San Giovanni beat Cailungo 3-1 in League #404 on October 26, 2025.

Goals: R. Michelucci (5'), E. D'Angeli (22', 25'), F. Tumidei (75').

The match was played at Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini in Fiorentino.