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Jeunesse Canach vs RM Hamm Benfica — National Division 2018

Jeunesse Canach
Jeunesse Canach
FT
1 – 3
RM Hamm Benfica
RM Hamm Benfica
10/27/2013National DivisionNational Division · Round 10Stade Rue de Lenningen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Jeunesse Canach45%
×Draw24%
RM Hamm Benfica32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunesse Canach
1.71
RM Hamm Benfica
1.40

Jeunesse Canach creates 22% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

creates per match

Jeunesse Canach
1.06
RM Hamm Benfica
1.13

allows per match

Jeunesse Canach
1.68
RM Hamm Benfica
2.35

finishing

Jeunesse Canach+0.00on par
RM Hamm Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Canach ↓

RM Hamm Benfica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jeunesse Canach or draw
68%
Jeunesse Canach or RM Hamm Benfica
76%
Draw or RM Hamm Benfica
55%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Canach wins by 2+
24%
RM Hamm Benfica wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jeunesse Canach 1+ goals
82%
Jeunesse Canach 2+ goals
51%
Jeunesse Canach 3+ goals
24%
RM Hamm Benfica 1+ goals
75%
RM Hamm Benfica 2+ goals
41%
RM Hamm Benfica 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Canach (draw refunded)
59%
RM Hamm Benfica (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Canach at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

RM Hamm Benfica away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.35 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Canach attack 1.06 + RM Hamm Benfica defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.71

RM Hamm Benfica attack 1.13 + Jeunesse Canach defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jeunesse Canach scores more
45%
level
24%
RM Hamm Benfica scores more
32%

Jeunesse Canach at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jeunesse Canach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Jeunesse Canach 1–3 RM Hamm Benfica

RM Hamm Benfica beat Jeunesse Canach 3-1 in National Division on October 27, 2013.

The match was played at Stade Rue de Lenningen in Canach.