San Francisco FC 0–0 Atlético Chiriquí

San Francisco FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Chiriquí

8/6/2022

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 3Estadio Agustín Muquita Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

San Francisco FC55%

×Draw25%

Atlético Chiriquí20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Francisco FCExpected goals in this matchAtlético Chiriquí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.85

San Francisco FC

1.58

Atlético Chiriquí

0.85

San Francisco FC creates 86% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 66 away

1.19

creates per match

0.65

1.06

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

San Francisco FC

1.19

Atlético Chiriquí

0.65

allows per match

San Francisco FC

1.06

Atlético Chiriquí

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Francisco FC+0.00on par

Atlético Chiriquí+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Francisco FC ↓

Atlético Chiriquí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

San Francisco FC or draw

80%

San Francisco FC or Atlético Chiriquí

75%

Draw or Atlético Chiriquí

45%

Winning margin

San Francisco FC wins by 2+

29%

Atlético Chiriquí wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

San Francisco FC 1+ goals

79%

San Francisco FC 2+ goals

47%

San Francisco FC 3+ goals

21%

Atlético Chiriquí 1+ goals

57%

Atlético Chiriquí 2+ goals

21%

Atlético Chiriquí 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

San Francisco FC (draw refunded)

73%

Atlético Chiriquí (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Francisco FC at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.06 · 132 matches

Atlético Chiriquí away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.97 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Francisco FC attack 1.19 + Atlético Chiriquí defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.58

Atlético Chiriquí attack 0.65 + San Francisco FC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

San Francisco FC scores more

55%

level

25%

Atlético Chiriquí scores more

20%

San Francisco FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "San Francisco FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff