Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlético Chiriquí vs San Francisco FC — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Atlético Chiriquí
Atlético Chiriquí
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Francisco FC
San Francisco FC
2/11/2023Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 5Estadio San Cristóbal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Atlético Chiriquí29%
×Draw28%
San Francisco FC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Chiriquí
1.03
San Francisco FC
1.31

San Francisco FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 134 away

creates per match

Atlético Chiriquí
0.99
San Francisco FC
1.08

allows per match

Atlético Chiriquí
1.54
San Francisco FC
1.07

finishing

Atlético Chiriquí+0.00on par
San Francisco FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Chiriquí ↓

San Francisco FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Chiriquí or draw
57%
Atlético Chiriquí or San Francisco FC
72%
Draw or San Francisco FC
71%

Winning margin

Atlético Chiriquí wins by 2+
11%
San Francisco FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Atlético Chiriquí 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Chiriquí 2+ goals
28%
Atlético Chiriquí 3+ goals
9%
San Francisco FC 1+ goals
73%
San Francisco FC 2+ goals
38%
San Francisco FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Chiriquí (draw refunded)
41%
San Francisco FC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Chiriquí at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

San Francisco FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.07 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Chiriquí attack 0.99 + San Francisco FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.03

San Francisco FC attack 1.08 + Atlético Chiriquí defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlético Chiriquí scores more
29%
level
28%
San Francisco FC scores more
43%

San Francisco FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "San Francisco FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Panameña de Fútbol: Atlético Chiriquí 3–1 San Francisco FC

Atlético Chiriquí beat San Francisco FC 3-1 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on February 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Cristóbal in Ciudad de David.