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San Francisco City vs San Diego Zest — USL League Two 2018

San Francisco City
San Francisco City
FT
4 – 3
San Diego Zest
San Diego Zest
7/7/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 12Kezar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

San Francisco City44%
×Draw20%
San Diego Zest35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Francisco City
2.19
San Diego Zest
1.94

San Francisco City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 5 away

creates per match

San Francisco City
1.58
San Diego Zest
2.20

allows per match

San Francisco City
1.67
San Diego Zest
2.80

finishing

San Francisco City+0.00on par
San Diego Zest+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Francisco City ↓

San Diego Zest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

San Francisco City or draw
65%
San Francisco City or San Diego Zest
80%
Draw or San Diego Zest
56%

Winning margin

San Francisco City wins by 2+
26%
San Diego Zest wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

San Francisco City 1+ goals
89%
San Francisco City 2+ goals
64%
San Francisco City 3+ goals
37%
San Diego Zest 1+ goals
86%
San Diego Zest 2+ goals
58%
San Diego Zest 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

San Francisco City (draw refunded)
56%
San Diego Zest (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Francisco City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.67 · 36 matches

San Diego Zest away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Francisco City attack 1.58 + San Diego Zest defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.19

San Diego Zest attack 2.20 + San Francisco City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Francisco City scores more
44%
level
20%
San Diego Zest scores more
35%

San Francisco City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "San Francisco City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Francisco City vs San Diego Zest

San Francisco City beat San Diego Zest 4-3 in USL League Two on July 7, 2019.

The match was played at Kezar Stadium.