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San Francisco City vs Orange County SC II — USL League Two 2018

San Francisco City
San Francisco City
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Orange County SC II
Orange County SC II
7/13/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 16Kezar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

San Francisco City37%
×Draw24%
Orange County SC II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Francisco City
1.54
Orange County SC II
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 4 away

creates per match

San Francisco City
1.58
Orange County SC II
1.50

allows per match

San Francisco City
1.67
Orange County SC II
1.50

finishing

San Francisco City+0.00on par
Orange County SC II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Francisco City ↓

Orange County SC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

San Francisco City or draw
61%
San Francisco City or Orange County SC II
76%
Draw or Orange County SC II
63%

Winning margin

San Francisco City wins by 2+
18%
Orange County SC II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

San Francisco City 1+ goals
79%
San Francisco City 2+ goals
45%
San Francisco City 3+ goals
20%
Orange County SC II 1+ goals
79%
Orange County SC II 2+ goals
47%
Orange County SC II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

San Francisco City (draw refunded)
49%
Orange County SC II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Francisco City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.67 · 36 matches

Orange County SC II away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Francisco City attack 1.58 + Orange County SC II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Orange County SC II attack 1.50 + San Francisco City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

San Francisco City scores more
37%
level
24%
Orange County SC II scores more
39%

Orange County SC II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Orange County SC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Francisco City vs Orange County SC II

Orange County SC II beat San Francisco City 3-1 in USL League Two on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Kezar Stadium.