San Francisco City 1–1 Monterey Bay II

San Francisco City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Monterey Bay II

7/7/2025

USL League Two · Western Conference - 17Kezar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

San Francisco City56%

×Draw22%

Monterey Bay II22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Francisco CityExpected goals in this matchMonterey Bay II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.15

San Francisco City

1.97

Monterey Bay II

1.15

San Francisco City creates 71% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

1.94

creates per match

1.29

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

San Francisco City

1.94

Monterey Bay II

1.29

allows per match

San Francisco City

1.00

Monterey Bay II

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Francisco City+0.00on par

Monterey Bay II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Francisco City ↓

Monterey Bay II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

San Francisco City or draw

78%

San Francisco City or Monterey Bay II

78%

Draw or Monterey Bay II

44%

Winning margin

San Francisco City wins by 2+

33%

Monterey Bay II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

San Francisco City 1+ goals

86%

San Francisco City 2+ goals

58%

San Francisco City 3+ goals

31%

Monterey Bay II 1+ goals

68%

Monterey Bay II 2+ goals

32%

Monterey Bay II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

San Francisco City (draw refunded)

72%

Monterey Bay II (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Francisco City at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Monterey Bay II away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Francisco City attack 1.94 + Monterey Bay II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.97

Monterey Bay II attack 1.29 + San Francisco City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

San Francisco City scores more

56%

level

22%

Monterey Bay II scores more

22%

San Francisco City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "San Francisco City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff