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San Fernando Henares vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
11/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 3Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

San Fernando Henares36%
×Draw28%
RSD Alcalá36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando Henares
1.19
RSD Alcalá
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 99 away

creates per match

San Fernando Henares
1.19
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

San Fernando Henares
1.16
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

San Fernando Henares+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando Henares ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Fernando Henares or draw
64%
San Fernando Henares or RSD Alcalá
72%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
64%

Winning margin

San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
15%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
70%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
33%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
12%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
70%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
33%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
50%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando Henares at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando Henares attack 1.19 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

San Fernando Henares scores more
36%
level
28%
RSD Alcalá scores more
36%

San Fernando Henares at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "San Fernando Henares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Fernando Henares 1 – 0 RSD Alcalá

San Fernando Henares beat RSD Alcalá 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino in San Fernando de Henares.