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San Fernando Henares vs Móstoles — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Móstoles
Móstoles
11/24/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 14Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

San Fernando Henares34%
×Draw28%
Móstoles38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando Henares
1.14
Móstoles
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 76 away

creates per match

San Fernando Henares
1.19
Móstoles
1.30

allows per match

San Fernando Henares
1.16
Móstoles
1.09

finishing

San Fernando Henares+0.00on par
Móstoles+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando Henares ↓

Móstoles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Fernando Henares or draw
62%
San Fernando Henares or Móstoles
72%
Draw or Móstoles
66%

Winning margin

San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
14%
Móstoles wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
68%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
32%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
11%
Móstoles 1+ goals
71%
Móstoles 2+ goals
35%
Móstoles 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
47%
Móstoles (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando Henares at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

Móstoles away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando Henares attack 1.19 + Móstoles defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Móstoles attack 1.30 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

San Fernando Henares scores more
34%
level
28%
Móstoles scores more
38%

Móstoles at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Fernando Henares 1 – 1 Móstoles

San Fernando Henares and Móstoles drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino in San Fernando de Henares.