Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Fernando Henares vs AD Parla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
CANC
00:00
AD Parla
AD Parla
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 30Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

San Fernando Henares45%
×Draw27%
AD Parla28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando Henares
1.42
AD Parla
1.07

San Fernando Henares creates 33% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 98 away

creates per match

San Fernando Henares
1.19
AD Parla
0.99

allows per match

San Fernando Henares
1.16
AD Parla
1.65

finishing

San Fernando Henares+0.00on par
AD Parla+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando Henares ↓

AD Parla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

San Fernando Henares or draw
72%
San Fernando Henares or AD Parla
73%
Draw or AD Parla
55%

Winning margin

San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
22%
AD Parla wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
76%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
41%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
17%
AD Parla 1+ goals
66%
AD Parla 2+ goals
29%
AD Parla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
61%
AD Parla (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando Henares at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

AD Parla away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.65 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando Henares attack 1.19 + AD Parla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

AD Parla attack 0.99 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

San Fernando Henares scores more
45%
level
27%
AD Parla scores more
28%

San Fernando Henares at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "San Fernando Henares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Fernando Henares face AD Parla (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 returns with San Fernando Henares hosting AD Parla. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

San Fernando Henares host AD Parla at Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.