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San Fernando CD vs Real Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Murcia
Real Murcia
9/24/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

San Fernando CD32%
×Draw28%
Real Murcia39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando CD
1.09
Real Murcia
1.23

Real Murcia creates 13% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 76 away

creates per match

San Fernando CD
1.21
Real Murcia
1.18

allows per match

San Fernando CD
1.29
Real Murcia
0.97

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par
Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

Real Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw
61%
San Fernando CD or Real Murcia
72%
Draw or Real Murcia
68%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+
13%
Real Murcia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals
66%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
30%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
10%
Real Murcia 1+ goals
71%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
35%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
45%
Real Murcia (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.29 · 38 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.21 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + San Fernando CD defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

San Fernando CD scores more
32%
level
28%
Real Murcia scores more
39%

Real Murcia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: San Fernando CD 1–1 Real Murcia

San Fernando CD and Real Murcia drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Iberoamericano 2010 in San Fernando.