San Fernando CD 1–0 Real Betis II: Result & Stats

San Fernando CD

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Betis II

Juanmi Callejón 40'

1/26/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

San Fernando CD44%

×Draw27%

Real Betis II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Fernando CDExpected goals in this matchReal Betis II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.09

San Fernando CD

1.41

Real Betis II

1.09

San Fernando CD creates 29% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

1.21

creates per match

0.89

1.29

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

San Fernando CD

1.21

Real Betis II

0.89

allows per match

San Fernando CD

1.29

Real Betis II

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

Real Betis II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw

71%

San Fernando CD or Real Betis II

73%

Draw or Real Betis II

56%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+

21%

Real Betis II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals

76%

San Fernando CD 2+ goals

41%

San Fernando CD 3+ goals

17%

Real Betis II 1+ goals

66%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

30%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)

60%

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.29 · 38 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.21 + Real Betis II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.41

Real Betis II attack 0.89 + San Fernando CD defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Fernando CD scores more

44%

level

27%

Real Betis II scores more

29%

San Fernando CD at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "San Fernando CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

A. Bandaogo

16'

M. Carbo

40'

50'

50'

55'

67'

J. Calderon

70'

Antonio Caballero← Pedro Benito

70'

Rodrigo Sanz← Juanmi Callejón

73'

L. Ruiz

76'

M. Crespi

78'

Marcos Fernández← Marchena

78'

Gonçalo Cardoso← Félix Martí

84'

90+1'

J. Bicho

90+5'

90'

Francis Ferrón← J. Biabiany

90'

Fran Delgado← Ángel Baena

90'

M. Sanhaji← José Lara

San

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Nacho Castro

70'▲Antonio Caballero←▼Pedro Benito

70'▲Rodrigo Sanz←▼Juanmi Callejón

90'▲Francis Ferrón←▼J. Biabiany

San Fernando CD substitutes

CaballeroSanzFerrónDionkouPasseroDopiAkpakpanAgüeroRamosCortésDjakaridjaPáez

Manager: Pablo del Pino

55'▲K. Sibo←▼Juan Cruz

78'▲Marcos Fernández←▼Marchena

78'▲Gonçalo Cardoso←▼Félix Martí

90'▲Fran Delgado←▼Ángel Baena

90'▲M. Sanhaji←▼José Lara

Real Betis II substitutes

SiboFernándezCardosoDelgadoSanhajiSorrocheVidalFékirMartínez

Match Recap: San Fernando CD vs Real Betis II

San Fernando CD beat Real Betis II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 26, 2022.

Goals: Juanmi Callejón (40').

The match was played at Estadio Iberoamericano 2010 in San Fernando.

San Fernando CD vs Real Betis II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Fernando CD vs Real Betis II