San Fernando CD 0–1 Racing Ferrol: Result & Stats

San Fernando CD

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Racing Ferrol

9/11/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

San Fernando CD36%

×Draw28%

Racing Ferrol36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Fernando CDExpected goals in this matchRacing Ferrol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.21

San Fernando CD

1.20

Racing Ferrol

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 83 away

1.47

creates per match

1.10

1.32

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

San Fernando CD

1.47

Racing Ferrol

1.10

allows per match

San Fernando CD

1.32

Racing Ferrol

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

Racing Ferrol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw

64%

San Fernando CD or Racing Ferrol

72%

Draw or Racing Ferrol

64%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+

15%

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals

70%

San Fernando CD 2+ goals

34%

San Fernando CD 3+ goals

12%

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

70%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

34%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)

50%

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.47 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.20

Racing Ferrol attack 1.10 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

San Fernando CD scores more

36%

level

28%

Racing Ferrol scores more

36%

San Fernando CD at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "San Fernando CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff