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San Fernando CD vs Linense — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Linense
Linense
10/8/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

San Fernando CD39%
×Draw30%
Linense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando CD
1.10
Linense
0.93

San Fernando CD creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

San Fernando CD
1.47
Linense
0.53

allows per match

San Fernando CD
1.32
Linense
0.74

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par
Linense+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

Linense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw
70%
San Fernando CD or Linense
70%
Draw or Linense
61%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+
16%
Linense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals
67%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
30%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
10%
Linense 1+ goals
61%
Linense 2+ goals
24%
Linense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
56%
Linense (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Linense away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.47 + Linense defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.10

Linense attack 0.53 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

San Fernando CD scores more
39%
level
30%
Linense scores more
30%

San Fernando CD at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "San Fernando CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Fernando CD vs Linense

San Fernando CD beat Linense 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Iberoamericano 2010 in San Fernando.