San Fernando CD 1–1 Linares Deportivo

San Fernando CD

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Linares Deportivo

12/4/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

San Fernando CD45%

×Draw25%

Linares Deportivo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Fernando CDExpected goals in this matchLinares Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.25

San Fernando CD

1.59

Linares Deportivo

1.25

San Fernando CD creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.47

creates per match

1.17

1.32

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

San Fernando CD

1.47

Linares Deportivo

1.17

allows per match

San Fernando CD

1.32

Linares Deportivo

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

Linares Deportivo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw

70%

San Fernando CD or Linares Deportivo

75%

Draw or Linares Deportivo

55%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+

23%

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals

80%

San Fernando CD 2+ goals

47%

San Fernando CD 3+ goals

21%

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

71%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

36%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)

60%

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.47 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.59

Linares Deportivo attack 1.17 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

San Fernando CD scores more

45%

level

25%

Linares Deportivo scores more

30%

San Fernando CD at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "San Fernando CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff