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San Fernando CD vs Fuenlabrada — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
11/6/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

San Fernando CD49%
×Draw26%
Fuenlabrada24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando CD
1.48
Fuenlabrada
0.95

San Fernando CD creates 56% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

San Fernando CD
1.47
Fuenlabrada
0.58

allows per match

San Fernando CD
1.32
Fuenlabrada
1.50

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par
Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

Fuenlabrada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw
76%
San Fernando CD or Fuenlabrada
74%
Draw or Fuenlabrada
51%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+
25%
Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals
77%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
43%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
19%
Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
61%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
25%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
67%
Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.47 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Fuenlabrada attack 0.58 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

San Fernando CD scores more
49%
level
26%
Fuenlabrada scores more
24%

San Fernando CD at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "San Fernando CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: San Fernando CD 3–0 Fuenlabrada

San Fernando CD beat Fuenlabrada 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Iberoamericano 2010 in San Fernando.